Gold rebounds as U.S.-Iran uncertainty persists, OCBC trims price outlook

Gold rises amid unclear U.S.-Iran talks and Middle East tensions

Spot gold climbed 0.9% to $4,524.51 an ounce by 01:43 ET (05:43 GMT) on Tuesday, while gold futures gained 1.1% to $4,553.70 per ounce. The advance followed a sharp decline in the prior session, which had been triggered by a report that Iran halted peace negotiations with the United States in response to increased Israeli hostilities against Lebanon.

The reported suspension of talks heightened concerns over a prolonged conflict in the Middle East. Market sentiment was further shaped by mixed messages from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the status of negotiations with Iran. Trump initially stated that he did not care if Iran had walked away from talks, but later said discussions remained ongoing and that he expected a deal within the next week to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

A partial ceasefire between Lebanese group Hezbollah and Israel offered some relief, especially given Iran’s repeated demand that Lebanon be included in any ceasefire arrangement. However, the lack of clarity around U.S.-Iran negotiations continued to weigh on market confidence. Concerns that an extended conflict could fuel inflation and keep interest rates elevated have been a major headwind for gold since the onset of the U.S.-Iran conflict.

Other precious metals also rebounded on Tuesday. Spot silver rose 2.2% to $76.5275 per ounce, while spot platinum increased 1.8% to $1,963.58 per ounce, recouping part of their recent losses.

OCBC cuts gold price forecast but sees constructive structural backdrop

OCBC revised its gold price outlook on Tuesday, lowering its forecast for the metal’s year-end level. The bank now expects gold to end the year around $5,100 per ounce, down from a previous projection of $5,350 per ounce.

The adjustment reflects OCBC’s assessment of a less favorable environment for bullion, driven by expectations of higher-for-longer oil prices and a hawkish outlook for the Federal Reserve. The bank also cited sluggish physical demand in India following New Delhi’s decision to impose higher gold import tariffs, which is expected to further weigh on prices.

Despite the downgrade, OCBC described the structural backdrop for gold as “somewhat constructive,” pointing to continued demand from central banks. Central bank buying was highlighted as a major contributor to gold’s outsized gains in early 2026.

FAQ

How did gold prices move on Tuesday?
Spot gold rose 0.9% to $4,524.51 an ounce by 01:43 ET (05:43 GMT), while gold futures increased 1.1% to $4,553.70 per ounce.

What geopolitical developments are influencing gold markets?
Uncertainty over U.S.-Iran peace negotiations, tensions linked to Israeli hostilities against Lebanon, and the status of a partial ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel are key factors affecting sentiment.

What is OCBC’s new year-end gold price forecast?
OCBC expects gold to end the year around $5,100 per ounce, down from its prior forecast of $5,350 per ounce.

What factors did OCBC cite for lowering its gold forecast?
OCBC pointed to higher-for-longer oil prices, a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook, and weaker physical demand in India due to higher gold import tariffs, while also noting ongoing central bank demand as a supportive structural factor.