Oil Prices Slip as Markets Weigh Prospects of US–Iran Ceasefire Deal

Oil Market Reacts to Ceasefire Signals

Brent crude fell toward $98 a barrel, paring a weekly advance, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $93. The pullback followed comments by President Trump suggesting that Tehran had agreed to terms it has long resisted, including opening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump did not provide evidence for these claims, and the Islamic Republic has not publicly confirmed such concessions.

The crude market has been shaken by the ongoing conflict, described as an unprecedented supply shock. Tehran halted most traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting about one-fifth of global oil flows. More recently, the United States imposed its own naval blockade, adding further pressure to seaborne energy trade.

Priyanka Sachdeva, a senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, said that “the dominant theme now is not escalation, but stabilization,” underscoring a shift in sentiment as markets respond to the prospect of extended ceasefires and potential negotiations.

Geopolitical Developments and Supply Outlook

The war began in February after the United States and Israel attacked Iran, and it is now approaching the 50-day mark. During this period, President Trump has frequently issued contradictory statements, contributing to investor uncertainty. Alongside the tentative US–Iran ceasefire, Israel and Lebanon have also agreed to a 10-day ceasefire, adding another element to the evolving regional security picture.

Some Gulf Arab and European leaders indicated that a US–Iran peace deal could take around six months to conclude. They suggested that the warring parties should extend their ceasefire to cover that period, implying a potentially longer window of reduced hostilities if such recommendations are followed.

Control over the Strait of Hormuz remains contentious. The dual blockade by Tehran and the United States has kept traffic near a standstill. Iran intends to charge ships for transit through Hormuz even after the war ends, according to the available information. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that it could take up to two years to recover a significant share of disrupted oil and gas production, highlighting the potential duration of supply-side impacts even if a political agreement is reached.

FAQ

Why did oil prices fall in this report?
Oil prices declined as President Trump’s optimistic comments about a potential permanent ceasefire between the US and Iran led markets to reassess geopolitical risk, easing some of the war-related risk premium that had supported prices.

How has the conflict affected global oil supply?
The conflict led Tehran to halt most traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting about one-fifth of global oil flows. The subsequent US naval blockade further constrained maritime energy shipments.

What are the key price levels mentioned for crude benchmarks?
Brent crude fell toward $98 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded near $93, both reducing their gains for the week.

How long could it take for disrupted production to recover?
The IEA warned that it could take up to two years to recover a significant share of the oil and gas production that has been disrupted by the conflict.