Oil Prices Ease After Rally as Hormuz Disruption, U.S. Data Weighed

Oil Futures Pull Back After Three-Day Rally

As of 20:19 ET (00:19 GMT), July Brent oil futures fell 0.4% to $107.36 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures eased 0.3% to $101.91 per barrel. Both benchmarks had gained more than 3% in the previous session.

Market sentiment remained cautious after U.S. President Donald Trump said prospects for a ceasefire with Iran were on “life support” and rejected Tehran’s latest response to U.S.-backed peace proposals. The continued uncertainty has raised concerns that the conflict could persist, affecting energy markets.

The Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route through which roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption normally flows, remains largely closed to commercial traffic after Iran tightened restrictions following the outbreak of war earlier this year.

Supply Disruptions, Inventory Drawdowns, and Policy Outlook

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday it expects the Strait of Hormuz to remain effectively closed through late May. The agency forecasts a much steeper drawdown in global inventories than previously anticipated, estimating global stockpiles could shrink by 2.6 million barrels per day this year. The EIA projects Brent prices may average about $106 per barrel in May and June.

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser has warned that the oil market may not fully recover until 2027 due to prolonged disruptions linked to Hormuz. Saudi Arabia has increased use of its East-West pipeline to bypass the strait, but analysts cited in the report note that alternative routes cannot fully compensate for blocked Gulf exports.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude stocks fell by 2.188 million barrels in the week ended May 8, marking a fourth consecutive weekly decline and underscoring tightening supply conditions.

Markets are also monitoring macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments. U.S. consumer price index figures released Tuesday indicated inflation remains firm, complicating the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. Investors are awaiting U.S. producer price index data due later on Wednesday for further indications on underlying price pressures and the central bank’s next steps. Higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates could slow global fuel demand growth, partially offsetting price pressures arising from supply disruptions.

Separately, attention is focused on U.S. President Donald Trump’s May 14–15 summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing. Discussions are expected to cover the Iran conflict, trade tensions, tariffs, and energy security, with bilateral meetings and a state banquet scheduled for Thursday, followed by further talks on Friday.

FAQ

What are current Brent and WTI prices?
As of 20:19 ET (00:19 GMT) on Wednesday, July Brent futures traded at $107.36 per barrel and WTI crude futures at $101.91 per barrel.

How much are global oil inventories expected to decline?
The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates global stockpiles could shrink by 2.6 million barrels per day this year.

Why is the Strait of Hormuz significant for oil markets?
The Strait of Hormuz normally handles roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption, so its effective closure has a substantial impact on supply flows and inventory dynamics.

What recent U.S. crude inventory trend has been reported?
The American Petroleum Institute reported a 2.188 million-barrel decline in U.S. crude stocks for the week ended May 8, the fourth straight weekly decrease.