Oil prices decline as Israel–Iran ceasefire eases supply fears

Oil market reaction to Israel–Iran ceasefire

As of 01:57 ET (05:57 GMT) on Tuesday, Brent Oil Futures expiring in August were down 1.2% at $93.08 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declined 1.5% to $89.89 per barrel. The pullback followed a brief spike on Monday, when Brent prices rose above $98 amid renewed military exchanges between Israel and Iran.

Market sentiment shifted after Trump said Israel and Iran were seeking an immediate ceasefire and both sides indicated they had paused strikes. On social media, Trump stated that “final negotiations on ‘Peace’ are proceeding, subject to ignorance or stupidity getting in its way.” He also said on Monday evening that the U.S. was close to declaring a “total victory” in the Iran war, and that oil prices were likely to fall sharply.

The latest truce comes after a weekend flare-up involving missile exchanges and attacks on petrochemical facilities. Investors remain cautious, as the ceasefire is considered fragile and could unravel if either side resumes military operations. Iran has warned it could restart attacks if Israeli operations continue, while broader peace negotiations are still in progress.

Ongoing supply risks and upcoming data

Despite Tuesday’s price decline, several factors continue to underpin the market. Disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains significant, with the passage described as being closed by a double blockade maintained by Tehran and Washington. This ongoing constraint is helping to keep a floor under prices, even as immediate war-risk premiums ease.

Traders are also monitoring the planned OPEC+ supply increases scheduled for the coming months. The producer group has been gradually restoring output, but the additional barrels are not expected to fully offset disruptions linked to the Hormuz crisis, according to current market assessments in the report.

Macro indicators are another focal point. Investors are awaiting U.S. consumer inflation data on Wednesday and producer prices on Thursday, which could clarify whether the recent rebound in oil prices is feeding through to broader price pressures. These data releases may influence expectations for economic conditions and, by extension, future oil demand and pricing.

FAQ

Why did oil prices fall on Tuesday?
Oil prices fell more than 1% in Asian trade on Tuesday as traders responded to signs of de-escalation between Israel and Iran, following an appeal from U.S. President Donald Trump and indications from both sides that they had paused attacks.

What were the latest Brent and WTI price levels?
As of 01:57 ET (05:57 GMT), August Brent futures were down 1.2% at $93.08 per barrel, while WTI crude futures fell 1.5% to $89.89 per barrel.

What supply risks are still affecting the oil market?
Key risks include continued disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed by a double blockade from Tehran and Washington, as well as the possibility that the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran could collapse.

What upcoming data are oil traders watching?
Investors are watching U.S. consumer inflation data due Wednesday and producer prices on Thursday to assess whether the recent rebound in oil prices is contributing to broader inflationary pressures.