US PCE Inflation Seen Accelerating Again in April 2026

Headline PCE Inflation Outlook

The US PCE price index is forecast to rise 0.5% month-over-month in April 2026. This would follow a 0.7% increase in March, which was the largest monthly gain since June 2022. The March surge was linked to higher energy costs triggered by the war with Iran.

On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation is expected to accelerate for a second consecutive month. The year-on-year rate is projected to increase to 3.8% in April from 3.5% in March. If confirmed, this would represent the highest headline PCE inflation reading since May 2023 and would bring it into alignment with headline CPI inflation.

These projected figures indicate that overall consumer price growth remains firm, with energy playing a prominent role in the recent monthly momentum.

Core PCE and Policy Implications

The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy prices, is projected to increase 0.3% month-over-month in April 2026. This would match the 0.3% rise recorded in March, suggesting a steady underlying pace of price gains outside of the more volatile components.

On a year-over-year basis, core PCE inflation is expected to edge higher to 3.3% in April, up from 3.2% in March. This would mark its highest level since late 2023. The combination of rising headline and core measures underscores that underlying inflationary pressures are not easing.

Overall, the anticipated report is likely to reinforce the view that inflation in the US remains elevated and materially above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The projections point to a backdrop in which both headline and core PCE readings are moving higher rather than converging toward the central bank’s stated goal.