US Manufacturing PMI Signals Strongest Expansion Since 2022

The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.1 in May from 54.5 in April, though it was slightly below the preliminary estimate of 55.3. The increase marked the strongest monthly expansion in the sector since May 2022, supported by the sharpest rise in production since April 2022 and another month of robust new orders. Stockpiling activity also played a role, as companies built inventories to mitigate risks from rising prices and supply chain disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.

Diverging Demand Drivers and Trade Headwinds

While domestic demand appeared resilient, external demand remained weak. Exports declined for the eleventh consecutive month, with firms citing geopolitical instability and tariffs as key factors behind the continued drop in foreign orders. Despite this, employment posted modest growth, reaching a five-month high, and purchasing activity increased solidly.

Supplier delivery times worsened at the fastest pace since August 2022, underscoring ongoing supply chain strains. On the pricing front, both input costs and output charges rose at the quickest rates in nearly four years, indicating renewed price pressures across manufacturing supply chains. Nevertheless, business confidence slipped to a four-month low, suggesting some caution among firms regarding the outlook.

ISM Manufacturing PMI Confirms Sector Strengthening

The ISM Manufacturing PMI also pointed to an accelerating expansion, rising to 54 in May 2026 from 52.7 in each of the previous two months and exceeding forecasts of 53. It was likewise the strongest reading for the factory sector since May 2022. Faster growth was recorded in new orders (56.8 vs 54.1), production (54.3 vs 53.4) and the backlog of orders (52.2 vs 51.4), while employment contracted at a slower pace (48.6 vs 46.4).

Price pressures in the ISM survey remained elevated but eased slightly from April, with the Prices Index edging down to 82.1 from 84.6. The Supplier Deliveries index was unchanged at 60.6, indicating continued lengthening of delivery times. The Customers’ Inventories Index remained in “too low” territory, though contracting at a slower rate; this status is generally viewed as supportive for future production.

Survey comments highlighted ongoing macro and geopolitical risks. The Iran war was mentioned by 42 percent of respondents, tariffs by 18 percent, and 57 percent of panelists cited pricing volatility as an issue for their companies.

FAQ

What did the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI show for May 2026?
Answer: It rose to 55.1 from 54.5 in April, indicating the strongest manufacturing expansion since May 2022, driven by higher production, robust new orders, and stockpiling.

How did the ISM Manufacturing PMI perform in May 2026?
Answer: The ISM Manufacturing PMI increased to 54 from 52.7 in the previous two months, its highest level since May 2022, with faster growth in new orders, production, and backlogs, and a slower pace of employment contraction.

What were the main price and supply chain developments?
Answer: Both surveys reported elevated price pressures, with the S&P Global data showing the fastest rise in input and output prices in nearly four years, and the ISM Prices Index remaining high despite easing slightly. Supplier delivery times lengthened in both surveys, with S&P Global noting the worst delays since August 2022 and the ISM Supplier Deliveries index staying elevated at 60.6.

How did geopolitical factors feature in the data?
Answer: Firms in both surveys linked supply chain disruptions and weaker exports to geopolitical instability, including the Middle East conflict and tariffs. In the ISM survey, 42 percent of panelists mentioned the Iran war, 18 percent cited tariffs, and 57 percent reported pricing volatility as a company issue.