Oil Prices Climb as U.S.-Iran Strikes Raise Middle East Supply Risks

Oil Prices Gain on Escalating Hostilities

Brent oil futures rose 2.2% to $90.25 a barrel by 01:23 ET (05:23 GMT), after earlier touching an over five-week high of $90.75 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures increased 2.4% to $83.54 a barrel in early Asian trade. Trading volumes in Asia were muted due to a market holiday in Japan.

The price gains followed a series of strikes exchanged between the United States and Iran over the weekend. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) stated it had launched additional attacks against Iran on Sunday evening. These actions came after Iranian attacks on a U.S. base in Jordan that killed at least two U.S. troops and injured many others.

Strait of Hormuz Disruptions and Supply Concerns

The latest military activity has centered on control of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil shipments. CENTCOM indicated its recent strikes were aimed at further degrading Iranian military capabilities used to attack shipping in the strait. Iran was also reported to have intensified its strikes on surrounding Gulf countries.

The conflict represents the worst level of U.S.-Iran hostilities since just before their April ceasefire, with peace talks now appearing to have fully broken down. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely disrupted and is operating at a fraction of pre-war levels, sustaining concerns over additional supply interruptions and supporting a higher risk premium in crude prices.

Analysts at ANZ noted that “the supply narrative has become more bearish,” pointing out that the anticipated recovery in shipping has stalled, with Strait of Hormuz transit volumes falling to single digits. They added that, while U.S. production has increased, it has not materially changed the broader market balance. Global inventories continue to shrink, keeping both crude and refined products markets tight.