week 12 begins under the shadow of oil and the Fed
The global economy enters Week 12 under a heavier macro cloud, with markets caught between slowing growth signals and a renewed inflation threat from the Middle East oil shock. Brent closed above $103 on Friday, the U.S. dollar stayed firm,...
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Global Weekly Macro Review: War-Driven Risk Premium Meets a Growth Scare
This week, the global macro narrative shifted from slow expansion and disinflation to a more fragile risk-premium environment, driven mainly by the widening Middle East conflict and the resulting energy shock. Oil surged, lifting inflation risks, tightening financial conditions, and...
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The Global Economy in March 2026: A Slower World, A Narrower Path
March 2026 begins with the global economy in a fragile but more balanced position: growth is slowing, inflation is easing, and central banks are moving closer to the next phase of policy decisions. In this global economic outlook, we examine...
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Global Economic Outlook — February 2026
Key macro themes shaping markets as 2026 gets underway: a cooling but resilient U.S. cycle, a euro area recovery that is stabilizing just as FX dynamics return to the policy debate, the UK’s slow-growth equilibrium with sticky domestic inflation pressures,...
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US Economy, USD, and Wall Street
Weekly Review – Week ending Friday, Jan. 23, 2026 The week ending Friday, Jan. 23, 2026, reinforced a “moderate expansion with late-cycle normalization” baseline rather than a clean re-acceleration narrative. Markets were driven early by headline volatility around trade policy,...
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