Oil Prices Edge Higher Ahead of Trump-Putin Talks, but Weekly Losses Loom

📌 Key Takeaways

• Oil prices gained slightly on Thursday but remain down for the week.
• Trump-Putin talks on Ukraine could sway global supply and market sentiment.
• Tariffs on Russian oil buyers may tighten supply and support oil prices.
• IEA warns of a significant oil surplus in 2026.
• Rising U.S. crude inventories signal weaker demand post-summer.

Oil prices ticked higher on Thursday, with market attention fixed on how Friday’s meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin could influence global supply dynamics.

At 08:45 ET (12:45 GMT), Brent crude futures for October climbed 0.5% to $65.94 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 0.5% to $62.97. Despite the gains, both benchmarks remain on track for weekly losses of about 1%.

Trump-Putin Talks Could Shift Supply Outlook

The two leaders are scheduled to meet in Alaska to discuss a potential ceasefire with Ukraine. Trump has warned of “severe consequences” if Putin refuses, including the possibility of steep tariffs on key buyers of Russian oil such as India and China.

Any new sanctions or tariffs could limit Russian exports, tightening global supply and potentially pushing oil prices higher. Conversely, any relaxation of restrictions could pressure prices further.

“Clearly, there’s upside risk for the market if little progress is made,” noted analysts at ING, warning that extended tariffs on major buyers like China or Turkey could have a significant impact.

Read More: IEA Oil Market Report: Global Demand Surge and Oil Price in 2025

📉 Bearish Factors Still Pressuring Oil Markets

Despite Thursday’s gains, broader sentiment remains weak. Oil markets have been weighed down by:

• Bearish supply forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency.
• OPEC+ steadily increasing output throughout the year.
• Concerns about a supply glut in 2025–2026, with the IEA projecting a surplus of 3 million barrels per day by 2026.
• A 3 million barrel build in U.S. crude inventories last week, far exceeding expectations for a 0.9 million barrel draw.

📊 Key Data Snapshot

💬 Final Word

While the market is holding its breath for Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting, underlying fundamentals, like high inventories and surplus forecasts, still weigh on sentiment. Any surprise from the talks could spark volatility in oil prices.

What’s your outlook? Will the meeting lift crude or deepen the slump? Share your thoughts in the comments below or check out our latest energy market updates.

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