Intel Stock Rally in July 2025? Citi Sees Potential Short Squeeze Ahead of Earnings
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) stock could stage a short-term rally in July 2025, according to a bullish note from Citi, which sees a potential short squeeze as earnings season approaches. Despite Intel remaining one of the most shorted stocks on Wall Street, the bank flagged improving fundamentals and an upside surprise to Q2 earnings per share (EPS).
“Intel remains the most popular short, but we believe the stock could squeeze higher during earnings given potential upside to EPS,” said Citi analyst Christopher Danely.
Key Takeaways: Intel Stock Rally July 2025 ✅
- Citi expects EPS upside driven by lower capex, reduced opex, and stronger PC sales.
- Intel remains heavily shorted, raising the chances of a short squeeze if results beat estimates.
- The PC market (60% of Intel’s sales) is showing signs of stabilization.
- Citi’s Q2 EPS forecast for Intel is above Wall Street consensus.
Chip Sector Outlook – Q2 2025 Earnings Preview 📊
| Company | Citi’s Outlook | Price Target/Estimate | Key Risks or Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intel (INTC) | Potential short squeeze on EPS beat; improving fundamentals | No PT revision yet; upside to Q2 EPS | PC market recovery; heavy short interest |
| AMD (AMD) | Bullish sentiment from AI growth, but buyside expectations high | Price target raised from $145 → $165 | Investor enthusiasm vs. risk of overvaluation |
| Micron (MU) | Weak near-term performance expected | No major change | DRAM price flattening, HBM oversupply fears |
| Microchip Tech (MCHP) | Top pick; under-owned with strong EPS upside potential | 2026 EPS forecast 38% above consensus | Broader semiconductor demand recovery |
| ON Semiconductor (ON) | Risk of flat gross margins; potential post-earnings weakness | No major PT change | SiC & China low-end business risks |
| Qualcomm (QCOM) | Cautious; secular headwinds, loss of Apple as a customer | Widely owned; sentiment surprisingly resilient | Smartphone market slowdown, customer loss |
| Texas Instruments (TXN) | Solid upside potential; strong gross margin performance | Q3 EPS ~10% above consensus | Broad industrial demand and pricing stability |
Why Intel Could Rally Before Earnings
Citi highlighted several reasons why Intel stock may climb in the short term:
✅ Lower capex & opex – Improved cost control is boosting margins.
✅ PC market recovery – Responsible for 60% of Intel’s revenue, the sector is stabilizing faster than expected.
✅ Short squeeze risk – With Intel being “the most popular short”, a positive earnings surprise could force traders to cover positions, pushing prices higher.
If Intel does deliver an EPS beat, retail and institutional investors could quickly flip bullish, especially with AI-related optimism still surrounding the semiconductor sector.
Read More: The Financial Revolution: From DeFi to Artificial Intelligence
Broader Semiconductor Sentiment
The chip sector remains mixed heading into earnings season. AMD continues to benefit from AI enthusiasm, while Micron struggles with DRAM pricing concerns. Microchip Technology (MCHP) stands out as Citi’s “most under-owned” pick, while ON Semiconductor may disappoint investors with flat margins.
Meanwhile, Texas Instruments (TXN) appears well-positioned to maintain momentum, benefiting from stable industrial demand.
💬 Will Intel’s Q2 results surprise the market and trigger a short squeeze? Or is the bearish sentiment justified? Share your thoughts in the comments! 📉📈
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