China’s Trade Surplus Slips Below Forecasts in July Despite Strong Export Growth

📌 Key Takeaways

• China’s July 2025 trade surplus was $98.24 billion, missing the forecast of $105 billion.
• Exports rose 7.2% YoY, beating the expected 5.4%.
• Imports grew 4.1%, defying expectations of a 1.0% decline.
• Trade surplus with the US fell to $23.74 billion.
• From Jan–Jul 2025, China posted a total surplus of $683.5 billion.

Exports Outperform, But Surplus Falls Short of Expectations

China recorded a trade surplus of USD 98.24 billion in July 2025, falling short of the anticipated USD 105 billion. While the number came in under expectations, it still marked a notable improvement from USD 85.27 billion a year ago.

The boost came largely from exports, which rose 7.2% year-on-year, beating market forecasts of 5.4% and improving on June’s 5.8% growth. Analysts attribute this jump to a temporary easing of tariff pressures and optimism surrounding an extension of the US–China trade truce.

📈 Import Growth Surprises Markets

Contrary to expectations of a 1.0% decline, imports rose by 4.1% in July. This comes after a modest 1.1% increase in June, suggesting a pickup in domestic demand or replenishment of inventories amid supply chain stabilization.

This unexpected rise in imports, combined with strong exports, narrowed the net surplus more than expected, though it continues to highlight China’s global trade dominance.

Trade with the US Shrinks Sharply

China’s trade surplus with the US narrowed to USD 23.74 billion in July, down from USD 26.57 billion in June. Both exports and imports between the two economic giants declined sharply, with exports falling 21.7% and imports 18.9% year-over-year.

This contraction reflects ongoing bilateral trade tensions, cautious corporate behavior, and uncertainty over upcoming US tariffs and policy shifts.

January–July Trade Snapshot

In the first seven months of 2025, China recorded a total trade surplus of USD 683.5 billion. During this period:

This sustained surplus underscores China’s resilient export engine, despite geopolitical headwinds and evolving supply chains.

What It Means for Global Markets

The data highlights China’s robust trade position, even as global demand remains uneven. Rising exports may ease concerns over China’s slowing economy, but declining trade with the US adds pressure to maintain diplomatic stability.

If the US–China trade truce extends, and global demand holds, the second half of 2025 could see further trade gains, though risks like US tariff decisions and geopolitical frictions remain on the radar.

✅ Your Takeaway

While July’s trade surplus came in below forecasts, the strong performance in both exports and imports signals underlying momentum in China’s global trade. The cooling of trade with the US is notable, but not yet alarming. Keep watching for developments in tariff policy and trade talks as they will directly impact these numbers going forward.

💬 What do you think about China’s growing trade gap with the US?

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