Germany’s trade surplus shrank to €16 billion in January 2025, marking a sharp decline from €20.7 billion in December 2024 and falling short of analysts’ expectations of €21 billion. This is the lowest surplus recorded since October of the previous year, driven primarily by a drop in exports.

So, what caused this shift? How will it impact Europe’s largest economy? In this analysis, we break down the latest trade data, the key reasons behind the decline, and what to expect moving forward.

Germany’s Exports Take a Hit: First Decline in Three Months

Sharp Decline in EU Trade

German exports fell 2.5% month-over-month, totaling €129.2 billion in January. This marks the first contraction in exports in three months, mainly due to weaker sales to European Union (EU) markets, which dropped 4.2%.

• Eurozone demand slowed significantly, with exports falling 5%.
• Non-Euro EU countries also saw a decline, with German exports dipping 2.3%.

Mixed Performance Outside the EU

Exports to non-EU countries also fell, albeit slightly, with a 0.4% decline. The biggest losses were recorded in:

• United States (-4.2%) due to weaker demand and potential trade uncertainties.
• China (-0.9%), reflecting slowing economic momentum.

However, not all markets showed weakness. Exports to the UK grew by 1.7%, while sales to Russia surged by 7.2%, partially offsetting the broader decline.

Imports Hit 18-Month High Amid Rising Domestic Demand

While exports fell, Germany’s imports grew by 1.2%, reaching €113.1 billion—the highest level in 18 months. This increase suggests stronger domestic consumption and a possible rise in industrial demand for raw materials.

Stronger Import Demand from Key Markets

• Imports from the EU surged 3.6%, reflecting robust demand for European goods.
• Non-EU imports increased by 0.5%, led by:
  • United States (+3%), with growing shipments of high-value goods.
  • Russia (+14.4%), despite geopolitical tensions.

This import surge has put additional pressure on Germany’s trade balance, further reducing its trade surplus.

What’s Behind Germany’s Shrinking Trade Surplus?

Several key factors contributed to this shift:

1. Weak Global Demand & Trade Uncertainty

• Slower economic growth in the Eurozone and the US has led to reduced demand for German exports.
• Political factors, such as potential US tariffs under Donald Trump’s presidency, have increased uncertainty.

2. Rising Costs & Supply Chain Disruptions

• Higher production costs and lingering supply chain challenges have made German exports less competitive.
• Businesses are still navigating the post-pandemic economic landscape, affecting global trade flows.

3. Rising Domestic Demand Driving Imports

• German industries may be stockpiling raw materials or responding to higher consumer demand.
• Increased imports, while beneficial for domestic industries, have put pressure on Germany’s export-driven economic model.

Read More: Germany’s Manufacturing PMI Shows Minor Improvement

Economic Impact & Outlook for Germany’s Trade

Germany, as Europe’s largest economy, relies heavily on foreign trade. A sustained decline in the trade surplus could lead to:

• Slower GDP growth due to weaker export performance.
• Lower business confidence as companies face uncertain trade conditions.
• Shifts in global trade strategy, with a need for market diversification.

Potential Silver Linings

• The increase in UK and Russian trade suggests opportunities for diversification in export markets.
• If global demand stabilizes, Germany could see a rebound in exports, particularly in high-tech and industrial goods.

What to Watch in the Coming Months

• US trade policies and potential tariffs on European goods.
• China’s economic performance, which remains a key driver of global demand.
• Eurozone stability, as economic challenges could further impact German exports.

In response, German policymakers may focus on stimulating domestic demand and supporting export industries to navigate these challenges. The next few months will be crucial in determining whether this decline is a temporary fluctuation or the start of a longer-term shift in Germany’s trade dynamics.