Australia’s trade surplus on goods experienced a notable decline in September 2024, falling to AUD 4.61 billion from a revised AUD 5.28 billion in August. This figure came in below market expectations, which had anticipated a surplus of AUD 5.30 billion. The drop in the trade surplus marked the smallest trade gain since March 2024, as exports experienced a larger decline than imports.

Exports Take a Hit

The primary factor contributing to the trade surplus decline was a 4.3% decrease in exports, which fell to a 33-month low of AUD 40.83 billion. The reduction in outbound shipments was mainly driven by lower sales of other mineral fuels. Exports to key trading partners, including India, Indonesia, and Japan, also dropped significantly. Shipments to India fell by 13.6%, to Indonesia by 25.1%, and to Japan by 15.9%.

Imports Also Decline

Imports into Australia also saw a 3.1% drop, reaching a nine-month low of AUD 36.22 billion. The decline in imports was largely attributed to reduced purchases of fuels and lubricants. These sectors saw a significant contraction, reflecting global fluctuations in commodity prices and demand.

Economic Outlook

Despite the decline in both exports and imports, the Australian economy continues to rely on its strong trade relationships and commodity exports. However, the smaller trade surplus could signal potential challenges ahead, particularly if exports to key markets do not recover. The ongoing global economic uncertainties and fluctuating demand for Australian goods may continue to impact trade figures in the coming months.