Australia’s business landscape showed signs of optimism in October 2024, as the National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence Index surged to 5, reversing a three-month streak of negative readings. This marks the highest confidence level since January 2023, signaling a positive shift across most sectors, except for construction and retail. The overall business conditions remained steady, with improvements in sales and profitability, although employment intentions dipped slightly.

Key Business Confidence Insights

In October, the NAB Business Confidence Index increased by 7 points, from a previous -2 in September, reflecting growing optimism. The rise was underpinned by stronger performance across industries such as wholesale, finance, business & property services, and retail. Retail, in particular, saw a notable uptick, driven by higher price growth. While conditions in mining and manufacturing saw a decline, other sectors displayed resilience.

Business Conditions Remain Steady Amid Mixed Sector Performance

Although business confidence soared, business conditions held firm at 7. Sales growth rose further, from 12 in September to 13, reflecting increased demand. Profitability remained stable at 5, indicating that businesses are managing costs effectively. However, employment intentions dropped to 5, slightly down from 3, suggesting that hiring sentiment might be cautious moving forward.

Easing Cost Growth and Slower Input Price Increases

One of the more notable developments was the easing of labor cost growth, which slowed from 1.7% to 1.4% on a quarterly basis. Similarly, the rate of product price growth dipped to 0.5% from 0.6%, while retail price growth picked up, reaching 1.1% compared to the previous 0.6%. Input costs also showed a slowdown, easing to 0.9% from 1.3% previously, indicating that inflationary pressures may be stabilizing.

Capital Expenditure and Forward Orders Show Mixed Signals

Capital expenditure (Capex) eased slightly to 8 from 9, and capacity utilization dropped marginally to 82.5% from 83.1%. This suggests a slight pullback in investment plans, but forward orders increased, moving from -5 to -3, hinting at potential future demand recovery.

Overall, October 2024’s NAB Business Confidence Index reflects a positive shift in Australia’s economic landscape, bolstered by stronger sentiment across key sectors and stabilizing cost pressures. However, challenges remain, especially in retail and construction, and cautious hiring intentions could temper optimism going into the next quarter.