U.S. Treasury Yields Rise as Investors Weigh U.S.-Iran War and Oil Supply Risks

Treasury Market Moves and Key Levels

At 2:47 a.m. ET on Thursday, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was up 4 basis points at 4.12%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond also increased by more than 4 basis points to 4.758%. The 2-year Treasury note rose by over 1 basis point to 3.562%.

These moves came as investors evaluated the evolving conflict between the United States and Iran and its implications for risk sentiment and safe-haven demand. The shifts in yields reflected ongoing repricing across the curve as market participants monitored geopolitical and policy developments.

Geopolitical Tensions, Oil Trade Measures, and Tariff Outlook

Concerns centered on potential disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that handles roughly one-fifth of global crude shipments. The U.S.-Iran war has raised the risk of jeopardized supplies and higher oil prices.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC’s "Squawk Box" on Wednesday that the U.S. government would introduce a series of measures to support oil trade in the Gulf, in response to the threat to supply routes. Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that the United States would provide risk insurance and escorts to tankers in the Persian Gulf to help ensure traffic can move through the Strait of Hormuz.

Bessent also stated that Trump’s recently announced 15% global tariff will likely go into effect this week. This follows a Supreme Court decision in February that struck down the President’s earlier levies.

Economic Data in Focus

Beyond geopolitical developments, investors were awaiting weekly U.S. jobless claims data on Thursday and looking ahead to February’s nonfarm payrolls report scheduled for Friday. These releases are being watched for additional indications about the state of the U.S. labor market and broader economic conditions, which could influence expectations for future policy and market pricing.

FAQ

What happened to U.S. Treasury yields on Thursday?
U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 4 basis points to 4.12%, the 30-year yield climbing more than 4 basis points to 4.758%, and the 2-year yield gaining over 1 basis point to 3.562% as of 2:47 a.m. ET.

Why are investors concerned about the Strait of Hormuz?
Investors are focused on the Strait of Hormuz because it is a narrow channel that handles roughly one-fifth of global crude shipments, and the U.S.-Iran war has raised the risk of disruption to oil flows through this route.

What measures did U.S. officials say they would take regarding oil trade in the Gulf?
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the government will roll out measures to support oil trade in the Gulf, while President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. will provide risk insurance and escorts to tankers in the Persian Gulf to help ensure traffic can move through the Strait of Hormuz.

What is the status of President Trump’s 15% global tariff?
According to Scott Bessent, Trump’s recently announced 15% global tariff is likely to go into effect this week, following the Supreme Court’s decision in February to strike down the President’s earlier levies.