Oil Prices Climb as Middle East Conflict Escalates and Trump Comments on Iran’s Oil

Crude Benchmarks Rally on Geopolitical Tensions

May futures for Brent crude rose 2.47% to $115.35 per barrel during early Asia hours on Monday, according to LSEG data, with the international benchmark heading for a record monthly increase. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained 1.62% to $101.25 per barrel.

The price moves followed comments by President Donald Trump, who told the Financial Times on Sunday that his preferred option in Iran would be to “take the oil.” He likened this to U.S. actions in Venezuela, where Washington effectively gained control over the country’s oil sector after the capture of its leader Nicolás Maduro.

Trump’s remarks come as the conflict between the U.S.-Israel alliance and Iran has entered its fifth week. The confrontation, which began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, has widened across the region, heightening risks to energy infrastructure and contributing to a sharp rally in crude prices.

Regional Conflict Expands, Raising Energy Flow Risks

Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi movement said Saturday it had launched missiles at Israel, in what it described as its first direct involvement in the U.S.-Israel war against Iran. In a post on X, spokesperson Yahya Saree said the group fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at what it called sensitive Israeli military targets, in support of Iran and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon.

Market analysts highlighted the growing risk that the conflict could disrupt critical oil infrastructure and maritime chokepoints. Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said global equities were beginning to price in a “higher-for-longer” scenario for both oil prices and interest rates as the risk of a prolonged conflict rises. He warned that a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could deepen the market pullback and increase recession risks.

David Roche, strategist at Quantum Strategy, said markets were increasingly factoring in the possibility of a more aggressive U.S. response, including potential “boots on the ground” and a move to seize Iran’s key export hub at Kharg Island, through which roughly 90% of the country’s oil flows. He noted that such action could effectively cut off Iran’s dollar revenues but risk triggering full-scale escalation, with Tehran likely to target critical infrastructure across the Gulf.

Roche also highlighted the vulnerability of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which carries around 5 million barrels per day to the Red Sea, and warned that any disruption at the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint could severely constrain exports.

FAQ

Why did oil prices rise on Monday?
Oil prices rose due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including Houthi missile launches toward Israel and President Trump’s reported comments about taking Iran’s oil, which increased concerns over potential disruptions to regional energy flows.

What are the latest price levels for Brent and WTI?
May Brent crude futures rose 2.47% to $115.35 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained 1.62% to $101.25 per barrel during early Asia trading.

Which energy routes and assets are seen as most at risk?
Analysts highlighted the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s export hub at Kharg Island, Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline (around 5 million barrels per day), and the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint as key vulnerabilities.

How are broader financial markets reacting?
According to Ed Yardeni, global equities are beginning to reflect expectations of higher-for-longer oil prices and interest rates, with risks of a deeper market pullback and higher recession probability if disruptions persist.