{"id":7242,"date":"2025-08-16T14:53:59","date_gmt":"2025-08-16T14:53:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/?p=7242"},"modified":"2025-08-16T14:56:04","modified_gmt":"2025-08-16T14:56:04","slug":"investors-looking-signs-week-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/otet-view\/investors-looking-signs-week-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"Investors looking for more signs in the week ahead, save the profit of holding the positions?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-yoast-seo-table-of-contents yoast-table-of-contents\"><ul><li><a href=\"#h-global-economic-review\" data-level=\"2\">Global Economic Review<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-united-states-economic-review\" data-level=\"2\">United States Economic Review<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-united-states-weekly-outlook\" data-level=\"2\">United States \u2014 Weekly Outlook<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-wall-street-expectations\" data-level=\"2\">Wall Street expectations<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-usd-scenarios\" data-level=\"2\">USD scenarios<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-euro-area-economic-review-amp-expectations\" data-level=\"2\">Euro Area Economic Review &amp; Expectations<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-gold-market-review-amp-outlook\" data-level=\"2\">Gold \u2014 Market Review &amp; Outlook<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-crude-oil-market-review-amp-outlook\" data-level=\"2\">Crude Oil \u2014 Market Review &amp; Outlook<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-bitcoin-market-review-amp-outlook\" data-level=\"2\">Bitcoin \u2014 Market Review &amp; Outlook<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-global-economic-review\"><strong>Global Economic Review<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Global growth remains positive but slower as inflation moderates and central banks inch toward cautious normalization, leaving markets to swing with each data print\u2019s impact on rate expectations, the dollar, and real yields. The IMF still projects 3.2% global expansion this year, with advanced economies benefiting from cooling inflation and greater policy flexibility, while many emerging markets struggle with currency volatility and heavier debt burdens. Assets echoed the macro mix: gold softened after a hotter U.S. PPI and a firmer dollar, WTI hovered in the low $60s amid inventory builds and softer risk appetite, and Bitcoin briefly topped $120K before retracing, though ETF-fueled institutional demand remains a tailwind. Inflation releases hint at tariff-related cost pressure, while July retail sales confirm consumers are still spending; the unknowns are how much firms will pass through and how much households can absorb. Abroad, the RBA cut rates, Norges Bank held, and Q2 GDP beat in the U.K. and Japan; China added stimulus as its recovery stays fragile. The Eurozone showed resilience but mixed data: industrial production \u22120.4% m\/m, Q2 GDP +0.1% q\/q, HICP ~2.2%. Geopolitically, the Trump\u2013Putin summit yielded no Ukraine breakthrough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Next week:<\/strong> U.S. Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales; PBoC, RBNZ, Riksbank; Eurozone PMIs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\">\r\n  <a href=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/prblog\" target=\"_blank\">\r\n    <video height=\"500\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1312 \/ 500;\" width=\"1312\" autoplay loop muted playsinline>\r\n      <source src=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Otet-Banner-en-2.mp4\" type=\"video\/mp4\">\r\n      Your browser does not support the video tag.\r\n    <\/video>\r\n\u00a0\u00a0<\/a>\r\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-united-states-economic-review\"><strong>United States Economic Review<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. economy continued to expand in previous week, with consumer demand resilient and the broader disinflation trend intact. Prices are edging higher at the margin, corporate margins are tighter, and firms appear poised to pass through costs selectively. Together, July\u2019s CPI and PPI reinforced the story of uneven disinflation and preserved Federal Reserve optionality amid uncertainty around tariffs, pricing power, and household tolerance for further price increases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Inflation details were mixed. Headline CPI rose <strong>0.2% m\/m<\/strong> in July and core CPI <strong>0.3% m\/m<\/strong>, lifting core\u2019s 12-month pace to its highest since February. Price pressure was broad-based\u2014<strong>core goods +0.2%<\/strong> and <strong>core services +0.4%<\/strong>\u2014while headline CPI held at <strong>2.7% y\/y<\/strong>, effectively range-bound between <strong>2.3%\u20133.0%<\/strong> for more than a year, consistent with firms absorbing a meaningful share of tariff-related costs to date. Within the basket, <strong>energy \u22121.1% m\/m<\/strong> and <strong>shelter +0.2% m\/m<\/strong>; core was <strong>0.3% m\/m, 3.1% y\/y<\/strong>, reflecting sticky services, notably medical care and airfares. The bigger surprise came from producer prices: <strong>PPI +0.9% m\/m (3.3% y\/y)<\/strong>, the strongest 12-month gain since February, powered by services margins and a <strong>0.7%<\/strong> rise in goods. <strong>Core PPI ex-food\/energy\/trade +0.6% m\/m<\/strong>, and <strong>trade services +2.0%<\/strong>, signaled growing resistance to margin squeeze and a higher risk of incremental pass-through\u2014likely gradual given tariff volatility and still-cautious demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Consumption started Q3 on firmer footing. <strong>Retail sales +0.5% m\/m<\/strong> in July, with <strong>June revised to +0.9%<\/strong>; the <strong>control group +0.5% m\/m<\/strong>. A pop in autos and higher goods prices boosted the nominal headline more than volumes, while promotion-heavy events and some pre-tariff buying provided tactical lift. Even so, softer discretionary trends in H1, a moderating labor market, and still-elevated prices keep risks skewed toward a cooler H2 as companies take a \u201ctest-the-waters\u201d approach to price hikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the supply side, <strong>manufacturing output was flat<\/strong> in July. The Fed\u2019s <strong>G.17<\/strong> showed <strong>industrial production \u22120.1% m\/m<\/strong> as mining and utilities dipped and manufacturing stalled (<strong>0.0% m\/m<\/strong>); <strong>capacity utilization<\/strong> edged down to <strong>77.5%<\/strong>, signaling residual slack. Sentiment softened: the <strong>University of Michigan<\/strong> preliminary <strong>August<\/strong> index fell to <strong>58.6<\/strong> (from <strong>61.7<\/strong>), with <strong>1-year inflation expectations 4.9%<\/strong> and <strong>5-year 3.9%<\/strong>. <strong>Initial jobless claims ~224k<\/strong> remain consistent with a still-tight labor market, and the <strong>Atlanta Fed\u2019s GDPNow<\/strong> held at <strong>2.5% SAAR<\/strong> for Q3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets responded with modest de-risking. Hopes for a jumbo September cut faded after the PPI, while odds remain elevated for a standard <strong>25 bp<\/strong> move. The dollar firmed into the CPI\/PPI and retail releases, then partially retraced after the sentiment data\u2014capturing the tug-of-war between growth resilience and inflation risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-united-states-weekly-outlook\"><strong>United States \u2014 Weekly Outlook<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With July CPI, PPI, and retail sales now in the rearview, investors will focus on four pillars this week: housing health, the business pulse, labor frictions, and policy signaling. The housing data\u2014starts\/permits and existing home sales\u2014are especially important for gauging whether higher mortgage rates and strained affordability are containing shelter inflation, the most consequential core-services driver of disinflation. A modest rebound in permits alongside flat-to-softer starts would fit the \u201cgradual disinflation\u201d narrative and temper upside risk to shelter CPI into the autumn (CPI shelter rose 0.2% m\/m in July).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Housing.<\/strong> July housing starts are expected to decline about 1.6% as single-family construction remains weak and some of June\u2019s 30% surge in multifamily activity unwinds after total groundbreaking rose 4.6% in June. Single-family permits fell 10.9% from March to June amid soft demand and elevated new-home supply, while multifamily remains supported by firm rental demand in a stretched-affordability backdrop. The NAHB survey shows 38% of single-family builders cut prices in July, underscoring demand headwinds. Looking ahead, multifamily should stay comparatively firm, and a modest mortgage-rate reprieve could gradually aid single-family building. On the resale side, existing home sales fell 2.7% m\/m in June to 3.93M SAAR\u2014a 10-month low\u2014with added supply cooling appreciation and some markets (Tampa, Austin, San Francisco) posting outright price declines. For July, sales are expected to slip another 0.5% to 3.91M SAAR; the early-August rate dip may entice buyers later but won\u2019t affect this print.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Business activity.<\/strong> Flash S&amp;P Global PMIs (manufacturing, services, composite) will offer a timely read on demand, pricing power, and hiring. After industrial production slipped 0.1% m\/m in July, weaker new orders or faster input-price growth would echo PPI\u2019s message that supply-side pressures are firming even as headline inflation cools. Conversely, firm output and softer price indices would support a \u201cclean handoff\u201d in which the Fed can cut without reigniting inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Labor.<\/strong> Thursday\u2019s jobless claims remain a key gauge. Initial claims in the low-220Ks are consistent with a still-tight jobs market; another benign reading would underpin spending momentum highlighted by July\u2019s 0.5% retail sales gain, even if sentiment remains subdued. A rise in continuing claims\u2014potentially foreshadowing slower wage-income growth into Q4\u2014would be interpreted as dovish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Policy signaling.<\/strong> Fed communication will be front and center. Markets currently price a high probability of a 25 bp cut at the September meeting, with diminished odds of 50 bp after the hot PPI. Emphasis on \u201crisk management\u201d\u2014balancing disinflation progress with growth risks\u2014would likely cap front-end yields and support duration; a pivot toward \u201cpatience\u201d could firm yield and the dollar into month-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-wall-street-expectations\"><strong>Wall Street expectations<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Equities enter with cautious optimism, and the S&amp;P 500 is likely to trade in a relatively narrow range with a slight downside bias. Tech\/AI leaders are vulnerable to profit-taking if guidance skews hawkish. Nasdaq technical flag pullback risk: confirmation would come on a sustained break below the 50% Fibonacci area near 20,000, with support at 22,250, 22,000 (pivot), and 21,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"487\" src=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/1-1-1024x487.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7243\" srcset=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/1-1-1024x487.webp 1024w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/1-1-300x143.webp 300w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/1-1-768x365.webp 768w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/1-1.webp 1431w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-usd-scenarios\"><strong>USD scenarios<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The DXY\u2019s path hinges on PMIs and housing: firmer growth tilts USD higher; a growth scare softens it. Baseline risks skew mildly lower toward support near 97 if housing confirms disinflation and markets price more aggressive easing, though safe-haven flows can limit downside. Technically, RSI around 46 is neutral-soft; a sustained move above 98 targets 99 and then 101. Volatility (VIX) likely holds near 15\u201316 but may spike on data or geopolitics, with thin late-summer liquidity amplifying surprises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"486\" src=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2-1-1024x486.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7244\" srcset=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2-1-1024x486.webp 1024w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2-1-300x142.webp 300w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2-1-768x365.webp 768w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2-1.webp 1428w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-euro-area-economic-review-amp-expectations\"><strong>Euro Area Economic Review &amp; Expectations<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Eurozone continues to tread water. June industrial production fell <strong>0.4% m\/m<\/strong> (<strong>-1.1% y\/y<\/strong>), with weakness broad-based across consumer goods and energy-intensive sectors. Q2 GDP grew a tepid <strong>0.1% q\/q<\/strong>, highlighting how net-trade and capex headwinds offset modest services strength. July HICP headline inflation was <strong>~2.2% y\/y<\/strong>\u2014close to target\u2014while underlying measures remain somewhat firmer, keeping the ECB biased toward gradualism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Germany\u2019s sentiment lost its faint silver lining: the <strong>ZEW Economic Sentiment<\/strong> index dropped to <strong>34.7<\/strong> from <strong>52.7<\/strong> in July\u2014its first decline in four months and below the <strong>39.5<\/strong> consensus. France and Italy remain mixed, with services stabilizing but manufacturing constrained by higher input costs and soft external demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the week ahead, <strong>flash PMIs<\/strong> will be pivotal for gauging whether manufacturing contraction is bottoming and whether services demand can offset goods softness. These releases are the first meaningful read since the late-July <strong>EU\u2013US trade deal<\/strong>, under which the U.S. will levy a <strong>15% tariff<\/strong> on most EU imports\u2014including autos and parts\u2014higher than prior rates but lower than feared, so investors will watch closely to see if confidence holds. Consensus points to a brief pause in the recent sentiment upturn: <strong>Manufacturing PMI ~49.5<\/strong> (still contractionary), <strong>Services ~50.8<\/strong>, <strong>Composite ~50.6<\/strong>\u2014levels historically consistent with subdued but positive growth rather than recession. Beyond the headlines, watch <strong>new orders<\/strong> and <strong>export orders<\/strong> (tariff sensitivity), <strong>input costs<\/strong> and <strong>output prices<\/strong> (pass-through of trade and energy costs), and <strong>employment<\/strong> (signals for wage momentum). From a policy perspective, with Q2 GDP and employment modestly higher and wage growth expected to cool alongside easing underlying inflation, in-line or softer PMIs would keep the door open for <strong>ECB easing in September<\/strong>. However, there is upside risk that early post-deal sentiment proves more resilient\u2014especially if auto supply chains stabilize and services demand holds\u2014in which case firmer PMIs could <strong>push the timing of a final 25 bp cut to December<\/strong>. Country dispersion will be key: auto-exposed <strong>Germany<\/strong> is most sensitive to tariffs, while services-led economies could cushion the composite if domestic demand remains sticky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>FX &amp; Rates Implications.<\/strong> <strong>EUR\/USD<\/strong> remains a function of relative macro momentum and policy-path convexity. Into the week, a balanced PMI outcome likely caps EUR rallies below prior resistance if U.S. data hold and Fed odds stay skewed toward a standard <strong>25 bp<\/strong> cut. A downside PMI surprise would likely pull <strong>Bund yields<\/strong> lower and widen rate differentials, weighing on the euro; a positive surprise would narrow spreads.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Technical Picture (EUR\/USD).<\/strong> Despite easing after touching multi-month highs above <strong>1.18<\/strong>, technical indicators remain constructive. Initial resistance sits near <strong>1.1820<\/strong>. On the downside, a USD rebound could pressure the pair; a sustained break <strong>below 1.1570<\/strong> would signal a directional shift.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"487\" src=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/3-1-1024x487.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7245\" srcset=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/3-1-1024x487.webp 1024w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/3-1-300x143.webp 300w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/3-1-768x365.webp 768w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/3-1.webp 1430w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-gold-market-review-amp-outlook\"><strong>Gold \u2014 Market Review &amp; Outlook<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold cooled last week as the PPI surprise and firm retail sales pushed real yields higher and trimmed bets on an outsized September Fed cut. Spot was on track for a ~1.5% weekly decline, hovering near <strong>$3,335\/oz<\/strong> into Friday\u2019s close. The dollar\u2019s mid-week strength added pressure before easing after the University of Michigan survey. The metal\u2019s secular appeal as a hedge against policy and geopolitical risk remains intact, but the near-term path is tied to U.S. growth momentum and the Fed\u2019s cadence into September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On inflation, July CPI\u2019s steady <strong>2.7% y\/y<\/strong> and softer energy components were gold-friendly, but the <strong>0.9% m\/m (3.3% y\/y) PPI<\/strong> reintroduced cost-push risk. The Fed\u2019s reaction function is critical: consensus still looks for two cuts this year, but the balance has shifted toward a standard <strong>25 bps<\/strong> move in September, moderating the \u201cpolicy put\u201d that buoyed bullion in early August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the data front, U.S. housing and flash PMIs will steer real yields and the dollar. Softer prints would likely lower real rates and support gold; upside-surprises would do the opposite. Fed speakers are also pivotal: emphasis on <strong>\u201crisk management\u201d<\/strong> and progress on disinflation would aid bullion, while pushback against a rapid easing path would cap rallies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Base case: with mixed U.S. data, gold likely consolidates in a broad range as markets stick with a standard September cut. If PMIs miss and jobless claims rise, real yields could fall, the dollar soften, and gold may retest recent highs with <strong>$3,400+<\/strong> in view. Conversely, hot PMIs and firm housing would dim prospects for sequential cuts, lift yields and the USD, and pressure gold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Keep an eye on the <strong>DXY<\/strong> and <strong>10-year TIPS yield<\/strong>\u2014they explain much of gold\u2019s week-to-week variance. A firmer <strong>EUR<\/strong> on stronger Eurozone PMIs would also help bullion by pressuring the dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Technical picture:<\/strong> XAUUSD remains range-bound between <strong>$3,300<\/strong> and <strong>$3,400<\/strong>. Sideways trade is the base case unless price breaks decisively above or below those bands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"490\" src=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/4-1-1024x490.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7246\" srcset=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/4-1-1024x490.webp 1024w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/4-1-300x144.webp 300w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/4-1-768x368.webp 768w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/4-1.webp 1431w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-crude-oil-market-review-amp-outlook\"><strong>Crude Oil \u2014 Market Review &amp; Outlook<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Overview.<\/strong> Crude struggled last week. Front-month WTI hovered in the low $60s as macro headwinds\u2014a firmer dollar after the PPI surprise and renewed growth jitters\u2014combined with a U.S. inventory build to offset some of the support from OPEC+ supply discipline. Spot WTI ended the week around <strong>$62<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Inventories &amp; runs.<\/strong> The EIA reported U.S. crude inventories <strong>+3.036 mb<\/strong> for the week ending Aug 9, defying an expected <strong>-0.9 mb<\/strong> draw and reversing the prior week\u2019s <strong>-3.029 mb<\/strong> decline; total commercial petroleum inventories rose <strong>7.5 mb<\/strong>. Cushing stocks edged up <strong>+0.045 mb<\/strong>. Refinery crude runs increased <strong>+56 kb\/d<\/strong>, but utilization fell <strong>0.5 percentage points<\/strong>, hinting at seasonal maintenance or outages. Crude imports climbed <strong>+699 kb\/d<\/strong>. On products, gasoline inventories <strong>-0.792 mb<\/strong> versus an expected <strong>-1.0 mb<\/strong> draw, while gasoline production was broadly flat (<strong>+10 kb\/d<\/strong>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Rigs &amp; supply stance.<\/strong> Baker Hughes showed the U.S. oil rig count <strong>+1 to 412<\/strong>; the total rig count was <strong>539<\/strong>, essentially steady w\/w. The incremental oil-directed increase suggests producers are cautiously responding to supportive prices and stable well economics, while gas activity remains subdued amid ample inventories and softer benchmarks. Overall, the upstream posture is measured\u2014sustaining output without broad expansion\u2014as shale operators prioritize efficiency and shareholder returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Drivers.<\/strong> Risk sentiment and the dollar steered week-to-week price action: PPI-driven USD and yield strength pressured the energy complex before partial relief followed weaker consumer-sentiment data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Week ahead.<\/strong> U.S. PMIs and housing will shape the demand outlook: stronger prints would support crack spreads and mobility proxies, while misses could revive demand-destruction worries. Weekly <strong>EIA\/API<\/strong> reports should be watched closely\u2014another build, especially in gasoline\/distillates, would cap rallies; draws would signal late-summer demand resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Scenarios.<\/strong> Product draws plus better PMIs and a softer USD \u2192 WTI pushes toward the <strong>high $60s<\/strong> as steadier refinery runs bolster demand. Another crude\/product build plus a stronger dollar \u2192 WTI retests recent lows with curve flattening and heavier pressure on prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"488\" src=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/5-2-1024x488.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7247\" srcset=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/5-2-1024x488.webp 1024w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/5-2-300x143.webp 300w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/5-2-768x366.webp 768w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/5-2.webp 1428w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Technical picture.<\/strong> Bias remains bearish with <strong>RSI &lt; 40<\/strong> and waning buying interest, pointing to ongoing downside risk. That said, WTI has carved out <strong>support near $60<\/strong>; while that level holds, a recovery back <strong>above $62<\/strong> remains plausible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-bitcoin-market-review-amp-outlook\"><strong>Bitcoin \u2014 Market Review &amp; Outlook<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin extended its leadership among risk assets, briefly setting new all-time highs above <strong>$120K<\/strong> before pulling back on the hotter PPI print and a firmer dollar. The advance remains underpinned by robust spot-ETF demand and a friendlier U.S. policy backdrop; even after the late-week retracement, BTC is still sharply higher year-to-date. ETF flow and volume metrics continue to support the bull case: BTC and ETH products saw strong summer activity, with periods when ETH inflows outpaced BTC without meaningfully denting Bitcoin\u2019s dominance. Ongoing institutional adoption\u2014larger funds and some treasury allocations\u2014has improved liquidity and damped event-driven volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Crypto has also become more sensitive to macro data. The same PPI surprise that weighed on gold and tech cooled BTC as markets trimmed odds of a jumbo September cut; by contrast, softer sentiment data and steady GDP tracking helped cushion the pullback. Into next week, <strong>PMIs<\/strong>, housing prints, and the <strong>USD\/real-yield<\/strong> trajectory are likely to drive price action; a softer dollar and lower real yields typically correlate with BTC strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Near-term watchlist: <strong>net ETF flows<\/strong> (IBIT and peers), <strong>stablecoin supply growth<\/strong>, <strong>funding rates<\/strong>, and <strong>futures basis<\/strong>. Also monitor regulatory headlines\u2014policy continuity that preserves institutional access remains a key pillar of the cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"487\" src=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/6-1-1024x487.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7248\" srcset=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/6-1-1024x487.webp 1024w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/6-1-300x143.webp 300w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/6-1-768x365.webp 768w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/6-1.webp 1431w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Technical picture:<\/strong> Daily indicators remain constructive. Initial support sits near <strong>$113,500<\/strong>, with a key pivot around <strong>$109,000<\/strong>. A sustained hold above support keeps the broader uptrend intact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Global Economic Review Global growth remains positive but slower as inflation moderates and central banks inch toward cautious normalization, leaving markets to swing with each data print\u2019s impact on rate expectations, the dollar, and real yields. The IMF still projects 3.2% global expansion this year, with advanced economies benefiting from cooling inflation and greater policy [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7249,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7242","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-otet-view"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7242","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7242"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7242\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7253,"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7242\/revisions\/7253"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7249"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7242"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7242"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7242"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}