{"id":7122,"date":"2025-08-09T15:49:49","date_gmt":"2025-08-09T15:49:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/?p=7122"},"modified":"2025-08-09T15:50:31","modified_gmt":"2025-08-09T15:50:31","slug":"u-s-inflation-and-the-rba-policy-meeting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/otet-view\/u-s-inflation-and-the-rba-policy-meeting\/","title":{"rendered":"Global Economy in Week 33: U.S. inflation and the RBA policy meeting"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-yoast-seo-table-of-contents yoast-table-of-contents\"><ul><li><a href=\"#h-united-states-economic-review-and-outlooks\" data-level=\"2\">United States \u2014 Economic Review and Outlooks<\/a><ul><li><a href=\"#h-review\" data-level=\"3\">Review<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-united-states-economic-outlook-key-data-wall-street-amp-usd\" data-level=\"2\">United States \u2014 Economic Outlook: Key Data, Wall Street &amp; USD<\/a><ul><li><a href=\"#h-wall-street\" data-level=\"3\">Wall Street:<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-usd-dxy\" data-level=\"3\">USD (DXY):<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-australia-rba-in-focus\" data-level=\"2\">Australia \u2014 RBA in Focus<\/a><ul><li><a href=\"#h-what-to-watch-in-the-statement\" data-level=\"3\">What to watch in the statement<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-aud-expected-reaction\" data-level=\"2\">AUD \u2014 expected reaction:<\/a><ul><li><a href=\"#h-levels\" data-level=\"3\">Levels:<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-gold-xau-weekly-review-amp-outlook\" data-level=\"2\">Gold (XAU) Weekly Review &amp; Outlook<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-wti-crude-weekly-review-amp-outlook\" data-level=\"2\">WTI Crude \u2014 Weekly Review &amp; Outlook<\/a><ul><li><a href=\"#h-what-to-watch-next\" data-level=\"3\">What to watch next.<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-bitcoin-btc-weekly-review-amp-outlook\" data-level=\"2\">Bitcoin (BTC) Weekly Review &amp; Outlook<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Global markets digested a soft U.S. July jobs report, mixed ISM surveys, and a surprise Bank of England rate cut vote ratio, while oil slid and gold spiked amid tariff confusion. U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose just <strong>+73k<\/strong> in July and the unemployment rate ticked up to <strong>4.2%<\/strong>, pointing to a gradual cooling in labor conditions. Manufacturing slipped (<strong>ISM 48.0<\/strong>) and services slowed to near-stall speed (<strong>ISM 50.1<\/strong>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Outside the U.S., the <strong>BoE<\/strong> cut Bank Rate by <strong>25 bp to 4.0%<\/strong> in a close <strong>5\u20134<\/strong> vote. China\u2019s July CPI was <strong>0.0% y\/y<\/strong> with PPI still deeply negative, underscoring subdued domestic demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In commodities, <strong>WTI<\/strong> fell about <strong>5% w\/w to ~$63.4<\/strong> on tariff jitters and chatter of U.S.\u2013Russia talks, while <strong>gold futures<\/strong> hit a record after reports that one-kilogram bars could face U.S. tariffs; the White House later said it would \u201cclarify.\u201d The <strong>dollar<\/strong> edged lower on the week as markets priced additional Fed easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Week ahead:<\/strong> A heavy U.S. macro slate\u2014<strong>CPI<\/strong> (headline seen <strong>2.8% y\/y<\/strong>; core ~<strong>3.0%<\/strong>), <strong>PPI<\/strong>, <strong>retail sales<\/strong>, <strong>industrial production<\/strong>, and <strong>University of Michigan<\/strong> sentiment. Elsewhere, the <strong>RBA<\/strong> sets policy on Tuesday, <strong>Norges Bank<\/strong> meets Thursday, <strong>China<\/strong> releases industrial production and retail sales on Friday, and the <strong>U.K.<\/strong> delivers a busy docket (CPI, GDP, and labor-market data).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-united-states-economic-review-and-outlooks\"><strong>United States \u2014 Economic Review and Outlooks<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-review\"><strong>Review<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The macro tone softened last week. July nonfarm payrolls rose to <strong>+73k<\/strong> (reported Friday, August 1), prior months were revised down a net <strong>-258k<\/strong>, and the unemployment rate ticked up to <strong>4.2%<\/strong>. Wage growth remained firm, but the overall picture reinforced a \u201cslow glide\u201d normalization rather than a recession, consistent with labor markets cooling after the strength of 2023\u201324.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>High-frequency data signaled mixed growth. <strong>ISM Manufacturing<\/strong> fell to <strong>48.0<\/strong> (fifth straight month below 50), with the employment index at <strong>43.4<\/strong>, pointing to continued factory headcount contraction. <strong>ISM Services<\/strong> eased to <strong>50.1<\/strong>; new orders at <strong>50.3<\/strong> barely held in expansion, while services employment slipped to <strong>46.4<\/strong>. Price components in both surveys stayed sticky enough to keep the Fed cautious, but the momentum clearly slowed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Markets leaned risk-on into week\u2019s end. Equities rallied as investors focused on the \u201csoft-Ish\u201d macro backdrop and rising odds of additional Fed cuts this year. Nasdaq closed at a record, the <strong>S&amp;P 500<\/strong> gained roughly <strong>2.4%<\/strong> on the week, and the <strong>Dow<\/strong> rose about <strong>1.3%<\/strong>. Earnings season supported sentiment: beat rates and surprise magnitudes are tracking above 10-year averages, helping sustain multiples despite tariff headlines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In FX, the <strong>DXY<\/strong> was on track for a <strong>~0.5%<\/strong> weekly decline as markets priced more 2025 easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, U.S. growth is cooling\u2014not crashing. Softer jobs and cooler ISMs put the spotlight on Week 33 inflation and activity releases to confirm whether disinflation is resuming, and demand resilience persists. Equities remain underpinned by solid earnings; rates and the dollar hinge on <strong>CPI\/PPI<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-united-states-economic-outlook-key-data-wall-street-amp-usd\"><strong>United States \u2014 Economic Outlook: Key Data, Wall Street &amp; USD<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key data this week:<\/strong> <strong>CPI (Wed)<\/strong>, <strong>PPI (Thu)<\/strong>, <strong>Retail Sales (Fri)<\/strong>, <strong>Industrial Production (Fri)<\/strong>, and <strong>University of Michigan sentiment (Fri)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>CPI:<\/strong> After a weak jobs report, inflation is the main focus. We expect <strong>core CPI<\/strong> to rise <strong>0.3% m\/m<\/strong>, the strongest in six months\u2014lifting <strong>core y\/y<\/strong> back to roughly <strong>3.0%<\/strong> as firmer goods prices are no longer fully offset by softer services. <strong>Headline CPI<\/strong> likely increases <strong>0.2% m\/m<\/strong> on lower gasoline and calmer food inflation. Tariff pass-through is building, but consumer fatigue is constraining pricing power. Base case: inflation firms without re-accelerating; core runs near a <strong>3%<\/strong> annual pace into Q4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Retail Sales:<\/strong> Headline sales are tracking around <strong>+0.6% m\/m<\/strong>, flattered by a rebound in auto sales and slightly higher prices. <strong>Ex-autos: +0.3%<\/strong>. After inflation, July retail sales are roughly flat, with households getting choosier and trimming discretionary spending amid a cooler labor market and tariff concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Industrial Production:<\/strong> We look for a <strong>flat m\/m<\/strong> print. Utilities likely retrace last month\u2019s surge; manufacturing is mixed. \u201cHard\u201d activity has held up better than soft surveys, but traditional capex (plants\/equipment) is slowing amid uncertainty. Investment remains concentrated in software and information processing\u2014consistent with AI-related adoption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-wall-street\"><strong>Wall Street:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Earnings remain supportive, and the BoE\u2019s cut reinforces a global easing bias, so stocks begin the week with a constructive tone. An upside CPI surprise could pressure long-duration tech and compress multiples; an in-line\/softer CPI would extend the \u201cgoldilocks\u201d bid and support cyclicals if retail sales\/industrial production improve. Watch leadership breadth: Mega cap tech versus a potential catch-up in financials and industrials. Technically, bulls still have the upper hand; a <strong>pivot near 21,000<\/strong> with <strong>resistance around 22,000<\/strong> is the near-term map.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"488\" src=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/1-1024x488.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7123\" srcset=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/1-1024x488.webp 1024w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/1-300x143.webp 300w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/1-768x366.webp 768w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/1.webp 1431w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-usd-dxy\"><strong>USD (DXY):<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>After a <strong>~0.5%<\/strong> weekly pullback, CPI is the swing factor. A hotter core (<strong>\u22653.1% y\/y<\/strong>) likely lifts front-end yields and <strong>supports the dollar<\/strong>; a cooler print (<strong>\u22642.9%<\/strong>) should <strong>pressure the DXY<\/strong> and favor risk-on trades (EM FX, commodities), especially with markets already leaning toward additional 2025 Fed cuts. Technically, DXY looks <strong>range-bound 96\u201398<\/strong>; a sustained break <strong>above 98<\/strong> opens the door toward <strong>101<\/strong>, while a decisive move <strong>below 96<\/strong> would likely require a heavier macro shock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"488\" src=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2-1024x488.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7124\" srcset=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2-1024x488.webp 1024w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2-300x143.webp 300w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2-768x366.webp 768w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/2.webp 1428w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-australia-rba-in-focus\"><strong>Australia \u2014 RBA in Focus<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Australia\u2019s macro backdrop has softened enough to tilt policy. <strong>Q2 CPI<\/strong> slowed to <strong>2.1% y\/y<\/strong> (trimmed mean <strong>2.7%<\/strong>), <strong>June unemployment<\/strong> edged up to <strong>4.3%<\/strong>, and <strong>June retail turnover<\/strong> rose <strong>+1.2% m\/<\/strong>a short-term lift that doesn\u2019t change the broader consumption downshift. Together, these prints have markets leaning toward RBA easing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>RBA (Tue, Aug 12):<\/strong> Consensus looks for a <strong>25 bp cut to 3.60%<\/strong>, with guidance leaving the door open to another move by year-end. The <strong>Statement on Monetary Policy<\/strong> should pair the decision with softer growth profiles and a still-gradual disinflation track\u2014consistent with a measured easing cycle into early <strong>2026<\/strong>. Our base case: a <strong>25 bp<\/strong> cut this week, followed by additional <strong>November<\/strong> and <strong>February<\/strong> reductions, taking the cash rate to <strong>~3.10% by Q1 2026<\/strong>. The Board remains in <strong>wait-and-see<\/strong> mode, emphasizing a <strong>gradual, data-dependent<\/strong> approach given global uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-to-watch-in-the-statement\"><strong>What to watch in the statement<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"1\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Labor-market slack (underemployment, hours worked)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Services-inflation stickiness versus softer tradables<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Household cash-flow dynamics and mortgage-reset risks<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The weight given to global tariff headwinds on domestic demand<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-aud-expected-reaction\"><strong>AUD \u2014 expected reaction:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A <strong>well-telegraphed 25 bp<\/strong> cut likely elicits a <strong>mild, knee-jerk AUD dip<\/strong>, especially if guidance hints at further easing. Two caveats:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>U.S. CPI<\/strong> arrives roughly 24 hours later and could dominate <strong>DXY<\/strong> direction; a softer USD would <strong>limit AUD downside<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If the RBA tone is <strong>cautious but incremental<\/strong> (no rush into a deep cycle), AUD may <strong>stabilize or even firm<\/strong> on a \u201csell-the-rumor, buy-the-fact\u201d dynamic. Near-term moves should track global risk sentiment.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"488\" src=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/3-1024x488.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7125\" srcset=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/3-1024x488.webp 1024w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/3-300x143.webp 300w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/3-768x366.webp 768w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/3.webp 1429w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-levels\"><strong>Levels:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>We see <strong>AUD\/USD<\/strong> <strong>capped in a 0.635\u20130.653 range<\/strong> near term. A clean <strong>break below 0.635<\/strong> opens risk toward <strong>0.613<\/strong>. Conversely, a <strong>sustained break above 0.660<\/strong> points to an extension <strong>toward 0.670+<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-gold-xau-weekly-review-amp-outlook\"><strong>Gold (XAU) Weekly Review &amp; Outlook<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold dominated headlines last week. Spot briefly traded above <strong>$3,410<\/strong> and settled near <strong>$3,400<\/strong>, while U.S. futures printed a <strong>record intraday high around $3,534\/oz<\/strong> and settled near <strong>$3,491<\/strong>. The spark was reports that U.S. Customs reclassified <strong>one-kilo\/100-oz bars<\/strong>, potentially exposing standard bullion to steep tariffs\u2014a particular issue for Swiss-refined metal. As logistics seized up and some shippers paused U.S. deliveries, the <strong>futures\u2013spot spread widened,<\/strong> and volatility jumped. A <strong>softer DXY<\/strong> added an extra tailwind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Policy clarity matters.<\/strong> If authorities <strong>exempt standard bullion bars<\/strong>, futures premia should narrow, and the squeeze should fade. An <strong>affirmation of tariffs<\/strong>, by contrast, risks persistent dislocations and an <strong>inventory shift toward London\/Asia hubs<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Macro catalysts.<\/strong> This week\u2019s <strong>U.S. CPI\/PPI<\/strong> are pivotal. A benign CPI\u2014especially <strong>core \u22642.9% y\/y<\/strong>\u2014would likely <strong>pull yields and the dollar lower<\/strong>, supporting gold. An upside-showing surprise could <strong>trigger a tactical pullback<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Positioning &amp; narrative.<\/strong> Expect <strong>two-way trade<\/strong> as systematic strategies recalibrate after the spike. Macro hedgers remain active on \u201cinsurance\u201d demand (tariffs\/geopolitics), but price action is <strong>headline sensitive<\/strong>. There\u2019s also a growing debate over gold\u2019s <strong>safe-haven appeal at elevated prices<\/strong>: as a <strong>non-yielding asset<\/strong>, the carry becomes more burdensome if the Fed <strong>doesn\u2019t<\/strong> deliver further near-term cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Levels &amp; risks.<\/strong> Elevated realized volatility argues for <strong>wider ranges<\/strong>. If tariffs are clarified away and CPI is tame, <strong>dipping into the $3,300s<\/strong> should attract buyers. If policy uncertainty lingers and inflation proves sticky, a <strong>re-test of $3,450\u2013$3,500<\/strong> is plausible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-1 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"489\" data-id=\"7129\" src=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/4-1024x489.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7129\" srcset=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/4-1024x489.webp 1024w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/4-300x143.webp 300w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/4-768x367.webp 768w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/4.webp 1430w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-wti-crude-weekly-review-amp-outlook\"><strong><strong>WTI Crude \u2014 Weekly Review &amp; Outlook<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>WTI fell about <strong>5.1% w\/w<\/strong> to roughly <strong>$63.4<\/strong>, its steepest weekly drop since late June, as tariff-driven demand worries and chatter about potential U.S.\u2013Russia talks weighed on sentiment. Mid-week, the <strong>EIA<\/strong> reported a <strong>3 mb crude draw<\/strong> and <strong>refinery runs near 96.9%<\/strong>, which briefly steadied prices, but the macro-overhang reasserted itself into Friday\u2019s close.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Drivers.<\/strong> Normally, a draw alongside tight products stocks would support crack spreads and WTI. This time, markets fixated on <strong>growth\/flow risks<\/strong>\u2014new or proposed tariffs that could sap trade and ongoing uncertainty around Russia-related supply dynamics. Both <strong>Brent<\/strong> and <strong>WTI<\/strong> finished the week <strong>down more than 4%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-to-watch-next\"><strong>What to watch next.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The next <strong>EIA weekly<\/strong>: do refinery runs stay elevated and does <strong>Cushing<\/strong> rebuild? A second straight draw would help anchor prices in the <strong>low-$60s<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Monthly outlooks: the <strong>EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook<\/strong>, plus the <strong>IEA<\/strong> and <strong>OPEC<\/strong> oil reports. Any upgrade to demand or downgrade to supply would be price-positive\u2014and vice versa.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Macro &amp; geopolitics.<\/strong> Any concrete developments on <strong>U.S.\u2013Russia<\/strong> relations or clarity on <strong>secondary sanctions<\/strong> could whipsaw the term structure. Base case remains <strong>range-bound $60\u2013$70<\/strong> while demand anxiety lingers. A softer U.S. <strong>CPI<\/strong> would aid risk assets and crude; a hot print risks another leg lower on growth fears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"490\" src=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/5-1-1024x490.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7128\" srcset=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/5-1-1024x490.webp 1024w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/5-1-300x144.webp 300w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/5-1-768x368.webp 768w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/5-1.webp 1428w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Risk skew &amp; strategy.<\/strong> Near-term <strong>downside tails<\/strong> are tied to tariffs and slower demand; <strong>upside tails<\/strong> require firm drawing or policy headlines that ease supply-chain risks. Tactically, a <strong>range-trading<\/strong> approach\u2014<strong>fade extremes within $60\u2013$70<\/strong>\u2014looks sensible. Initial <strong>support ~$62<\/strong> and <strong>resistance ~$67<\/strong>; a break of either likely invites a test of the range edges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-bitcoin-btc-weekly-review-amp-outlook\"><strong>Bitcoin (BTC) Weekly Review &amp; Outlook<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>BTC was relatively calm compared with metals and oil, trading mostly in a <strong>$114k\u2013$118k<\/strong> range and finishing near <strong>$116.6k<\/strong>. A Dow Jones\/Morningstar read showed <strong>-0.9% on Friday<\/strong>, consistent with chops rather than trend. Correlations re-tightened with mega-cap tech as the <strong>Nasdaq<\/strong> notched a record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Drivers.<\/strong> Softer U.S. data and a slightly weaker dollar provided a mild tailwind, helping BTC hold recent gains. Tariff headlines created cross-asset noise but had limited direct impact on crypto. Bigger picture: after July\u2019s push above <strong>$120k<\/strong> and subsequent pullback, leverage looks modest, and dips are being absorbed\u2014evident in intraday resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Outlook.<\/strong> As with other risk assets, <strong>U.S. CPI<\/strong> is the pivot. A cooler print likely extends risk-on and could carry BTC back toward <strong>$118k\u2013$120k<\/strong>; a hotter core risks a <strong>risk-off<\/strong> move toward <strong>$112k\u2013$114k<\/strong> support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What to watch.<\/strong> Keep an eye on <strong>ETF inflows<\/strong> and whether last week\u2019s equity leadership broadens\u2014higher beta helps BTC. Expect <strong>event-risk volatility<\/strong> to stay elevated into Wednesday; post-CPI, look for realized vol to mean-revert unless fresh tariff headlines re-ignite cross-asset swings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1430\" height=\"679\" src=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/6-1024x486.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7127\" srcset=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/6-1024x486.webp 1024w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/6-300x142.webp 300w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/6-768x365.webp 768w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/6.webp 1430w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1430px) 100vw, 1430px\" \/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Global markets digested a soft U.S. July jobs report, mixed ISM surveys, and a surprise Bank of England rate cut vote ratio, while oil slid and gold spiked amid tariff confusion. U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose just +73k in July and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, pointing to a gradual cooling in labor conditions. 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