{"id":6624,"date":"2025-07-17T13:47:33","date_gmt":"2025-07-17T13:47:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/?p=6624"},"modified":"2025-07-18T13:02:01","modified_gmt":"2025-07-18T13:02:01","slug":"kugler-fed-tariffs-inflation-july-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/news\/kugler-fed-tariffs-inflation-july-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed\u2019s Kugler Warns Tariffs Driving Inflation, Supports Holding Rates Steady"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-takeaways\"><br><strong>\ud83d\udccc Key Takeaways<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Fed Governor <strong>Adriana Kugler says interest rates should remain unchanged<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Tariffs from the Trump administration are adding inflation pressure<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>PCE inflation projected at 2.5% for June; core at 2.8%<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Job market remains \u201cstable,\u201d with unemployment at 4.1%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Next Fed meeting: July 29\u201330<\/strong>, no rate change expected<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\">\n  <a href=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/prblog\" target=\"_blank\">\n    <video height=\"500\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1312 \/ 500;\" width=\"1312\" autoplay loop muted playsinline>\n      <source src=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Otet-Banner-en-2.mp4\" type=\"video\/mp4\">\n      Your browser does not support the video tag.\n    <\/video>\n  <\/a>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kugler-tariffs-threaten-inflation-outlook\"><br><strong>Kugler: Tariffs Threaten Inflation Outlook<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Federal Reserve Governor <strong>Adriana Kugler<\/strong> said Thursday that <strong>interest rates should remain steady \u201cfor some time\u201d<\/strong> due to rising inflation pressures, particularly from <strong>Trump administration tariffs<\/strong> now affecting consumer prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Speaking at a <strong>housing forum in Washington D.C.<\/strong>, Kugler said the Fed\u2019s <strong>restrictive policy stance<\/strong> remains essential to anchor inflation expectations and avoid long-term price instability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cInflation remains above the FOMC\u2019s 2% goal and is facing upward pressure from implemented tariffs,\u201d Kugler noted.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-inflation-stubborn-rates-on-hold\"><strong>\ud83d\udca1 Inflation Stubborn, Rates on Hold<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The Fed governor cited recent <strong>CPI data<\/strong>, showing price jumps in <strong>import-heavy sectors<\/strong>. She projected <strong>June\u2019s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index<\/strong> will show a <strong>2.5% increase<\/strong>, while <strong>core inflation<\/strong> is estimated at <strong>2.8%<\/strong>, both higher than May\u2019s levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Inflation Metric<\/th><th>May 2025<\/th><th>Projected June 2025<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Headline PCE<\/td><td>2.4%<\/td><td>2.5%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Core PCE<\/td><td>2.6%<\/td><td>2.8%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cBoth headline and core inflation have shown no progress in the last six months,\u201d Kugler said, warning of additional price increases in the months ahead.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-employment-still-strong-but-tariff-risks-loom\"><br><strong>\ud83d\udcca Employment Still Strong, But Tariff Risks Loom<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the inflation concerns, Kugler noted the <strong>labor market remains stable<\/strong>, with <strong>unemployment at 4.1%<\/strong> and <strong>conditions close to full employment<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, she cautioned that <strong>higher tariffs on major trading partners<\/strong>, expected later this summer, could drive further inflation\u2014putting <strong>monetary policy easing out of reach<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><strong>Read More: <a href=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/news\/bitcoin-rises-trump-powell-fed-july-2025\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Bitcoin Climbs as Trump Softens Tone on Firing Fed Chair Powell<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-fed-decision-looms-no-rate-cut-in-sight\"><br><strong>Fed Decision Looms, No Rate Cut in Sight<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Federal Reserve is set to meet again on <strong>July 29\u201330<\/strong>, and officials are widely expected to <strong>hold the benchmark rate at 4.25%\u20134.5%<\/strong>. That would mark the <strong>fifth straight meeting without a rate move<\/strong>, as the Fed waits to assess how much of the tariff-driven inflation is <strong>temporary vs. structural<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cFed policymakers want to see if tariffs result in a one-time price jump or a lasting inflation surge,\u201d analysts say.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-looking-ahead-policy-and-politics\"><br><strong>Looking Ahead: Policy and Politics<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Kugler, a Biden appointee, will <strong>complete her term in January 2026<\/strong>, potentially allowing the <strong>Trump administration to reshape the Fed<\/strong> if reelected. One possibility includes replacing <strong>Chair Jerome Powell<\/strong>, whose term ends in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This adds political weight to the Fed\u2019s current pause, as policymakers navigate <strong>economic signals<\/strong> and <strong>election-year uncertainty<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-do-you-think\">\ud83d\udcac What Do You Think?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Will tariffs force the Fed to hold rates longer\u2014or could inflation drop in the fall?<br><strong>\ud83d\udc49 <em>Join the conversation below or share this article with your network!<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investing.com\/news\/economy-news\/feds-kugler-says-rates-should-stay-high-as-tariffs-push-inflation-93CH-4139944\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ud83d\udccc Key Takeaways Kugler: Tariffs Threaten Inflation Outlook Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said Thursday that interest rates should remain steady \u201cfor some time\u201d due to rising inflation pressures, particularly from Trump administration tariffs now affecting consumer prices. Speaking at a housing forum in Washington D.C., Kugler said the Fed\u2019s restrictive policy stance remains essential [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6625,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,2],"tags":[28],"class_list":["post-6624","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forex-trading-education","category-news","tag-forextrading"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6624","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6624"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6624\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6627,"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6624\/revisions\/6627"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6625"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6624"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6624"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6624"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}