{"id":5673,"date":"2025-06-05T15:11:39","date_gmt":"2025-06-05T15:11:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/?p=5673"},"modified":"2025-06-05T15:11:40","modified_gmt":"2025-06-05T15:11:40","slug":"canada-ivey-pmi-may-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/news\/canada-ivey-pmi-may-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Canada&#8217;s Ivey PMI Dips Below 50 Again in May"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Canada\u2019s economy showed <strong>mixed signals<\/strong> in May, as the <strong>Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)<\/strong> ticked up to <strong>48.9<\/strong>, up from April\u2019s 47.9 \u2014 but <strong>still below the neutral 50 mark<\/strong>, indicating <strong>continued contraction<\/strong> for the second time since January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Interestingly, this reading <strong>beat market expectations<\/strong> of 48.3, suggesting a slightly more resilient backdrop than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\">\n  <a href=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/prblog\" target=\"_blank\">\n    <video height=\"500\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1312 \/ 500;\" width=\"1312\" autoplay loop muted playsinline>\n      <source src=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Otet-Banner-en-2.mp4\" type=\"video\/mp4\">\n      Your browser does not support the video tag.\n    <\/video>\n  <\/a>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-may-pmi-components\"><br><strong>Key May PMI Components<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Indicator<\/th><th>May 2025<\/th><th>April 2025<\/th><th>Interpretation<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>Headline PMI<\/strong><\/td><td>48.9<\/td><td>47.9<\/td><td>\ud83d\udd3b Contraction (below 50)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Employment<\/strong><\/td><td>51.1<\/td><td>48.0<\/td><td>\ud83d\udd3a Back into expansion territory<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Inventories<\/strong><\/td><td>54.9<\/td><td>53.1<\/td><td>\ud83d\udd3c Rising stock levels<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Supplier Deliveries<\/strong><\/td><td>47.5<\/td><td>45.1<\/td><td>\ud83d\udd04 Persistent delays<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Prices<\/strong><\/td><td>66.9<\/td><td>70.0<\/td><td>\ud83d\udd3d Cooling inflation pressures<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-s-the-ivey-pmi\"><br><strong>What\u2019s the Ivey PMI?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>Ivey PMI<\/strong> offers a <strong>broad snapshot of Canadian economic activity<\/strong>, covering <strong>manufacturing, services, and construction<\/strong> \u2014 not just manufacturing, like some other PMIs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\ud83d\udcc8 A reading <strong>above 50<\/strong> indicates <strong>expansion<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud83d\udcc9 A reading <strong>below 50<\/strong> suggests <strong>contraction<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The index is closely watched for <strong>early signs of economic shifts<\/strong>, especially through subcomponents like employment and prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"482\" src=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/slider-85-1024x482.webp\" alt=\"Canada's Ivey PMI \" class=\"wp-image-5676\" srcset=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/slider-85-1024x482.webp 1024w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/slider-85-300x141.webp 300w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/slider-85-768x361.webp 768w, https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/slider-85.webp 1312w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-this-data-tells-us\"><br><strong>What This Data Tells Us<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The May numbers paint a <strong>dual narrative<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-positives\"><br><strong>\u2705 Positives:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Employment jumped above 50<\/strong>, indicating improving labor demand \u2014 a hopeful sign for wage stability and consumer spending.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Prices are cooling<\/strong>, with the index falling from 70.0 to 66.9 \u2014 still high, but moving in the right direction. This could <strong>ease pressure on the Bank of Canada<\/strong> to stay hawkish.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-concerns\"><br><strong>\u26a0\ufe0f Concerns:<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Despite the uptick, the <strong>headline index remains below 50<\/strong>, signaling that <strong>overall economic activity is still contracting<\/strong>, albeit mildly.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Inventory build-up<\/strong> and <strong>ongoing supplier delays<\/strong> may reflect <strong>sluggish demand expectations<\/strong> and <strong>supply chain friction<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Trade uncertainty \u2014 particularly due to erratic <strong>US tariff policies<\/strong> \u2014 continues to cast a shadow over Canada\u2019s export-driven economy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><strong>Read More: <a href=\"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/news\/bank-of-canada-rate-decision-june-2025\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Bank of Canada Holds Rate at 2.75% Amid Trade Uncertainty<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-final-take\"><br><strong>Final Take<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>May\u2019s Ivey PMI reading reflects an economy walking a <strong>tightrope between stabilization and stagnation<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\ud83d\udcc9 Economic activity remains subdued<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud83d\udcc8 Labor market resilience is encouraging<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud83e\uddca Cooling prices could give the BoC breathing room<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\ud83c\udf10 Trade uncertainty remains a key headwind<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>With the <strong>Bank of Canada already on pause<\/strong> after a series of rate cuts, these numbers reinforce the case for continued <strong>policy caution<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Moving forward, all eyes will be on <strong>consumer sentiment<\/strong>, <strong>export performance<\/strong>, and <strong>inflation dynamics<\/strong> as key determinants of Canada\u2019s path in the second half of 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/canada\/business-confidence\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Canada\u2019s economy showed mixed signals in May, as the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) ticked up to 48.9, up from April\u2019s 47.9 \u2014 but still below the neutral 50 mark, indicating continued contraction for the second time since January. Interestingly, this reading beat market expectations of 48.3, suggesting a slightly more resilient backdrop than anticipated. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5674,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24,2],"tags":[37],"class_list":["post-5673","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-global-economy-news","category-news","tag-financialnews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5673","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5673"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5673\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5677,"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5673\/revisions\/5677"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5674"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5673"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5673"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/otetmarkets.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5673"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}