According to the latest CPI data for June 2026, the annual inflation rate decreased to 3.5%, down from 4.2% in May. This outcome came in below analysts\u2019 expectations of 3.8%. On a monthly basis, the CPI fell by 0.4%, compared with a 0.5% increase in May, exceeding forecasts for a 0.1% decline and representing the largest monthly drop since April 2020. The CPI index itself declined to 333.95 points from 335.12 in May.<\/p>\n
The moderation in inflation followed a reduction in energy-related price pressures, partly reflecting the impact of the ceasefire between the US and Iran, which helped alleviate earlier energy-driven inflation. Energy costs rose 15.7% year-on-year in June, significantly below the 23.5% increase recorded in May. Gasoline prices increased 26.7% (down from 40.5% in May), while fuel oil rose 42.9% (down from 58.9%).<\/p>\n
On a monthly basis, energy costs fell 5.7% in June after increases of 3.9% in May, 3.8% in April, and 10.9% in March. Gasoline prices dropped 9.7% over the month. The decline in energy more than offset modest monthly gains in other components, including shelter (up 0.1%) and food (up 0.2%).<\/p>\n
Annual core inflation, which excludes energy and food, eased to 2.6% in June from 2.9% in May, coming in below expectations of 2.8%. On a monthly basis, core CPI was unchanged, compared with forecasts for a 0.2% increase. Services inflation slowed to 3.2% year-on-year from 3.5% previously.<\/p>\n
Food inflation edged down to 3.0% year-on-year from 3.1%, while shelter inflation eased to 3.3% from 3.4%. Together with the retreat in energy prices, these movements contributed to the overall deceleration in headline inflation.<\/p>\n
Historically, the US inflation rate has averaged 3.29% from 1914 to 2026, with an all-time high of 23.70% in June 1920 and a record low of -15.80% in June 1921. Looking ahead, Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expect the US inflation rate to be 3.70% by the end of the current quarter, and to trend around 2.60% in 2027 and 2.50% in 2028. The Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation rate also slowed, with PPI up 5.5% year-on-year in June versus 6.0% previously.<\/p>\n
The next US inflation release is scheduled for August 12, 2026, at 12:30 PM GMT, covering July 2026 data. The forecast for the July annual inflation rate is 3.4%.<\/p>\n
What was the US annual inflation rate in June 2026?<\/strong> How did core inflation perform in June 2026?<\/strong> What role did energy prices play in the June 2026 inflation data?<\/strong> When is the next US inflation data release and what is the forecast?<\/strong>
Answer: The annual inflation rate in the US was 3.5% in June 2026, down from 4.2% in May and below forecasts of 3.8%.<\/p>\n
Answer: Annual core inflation eased to 2.6% from 2.9% in May, below expectations of 2.8%, and core CPI was flat on a monthly basis.<\/p>\n
Answer: Energy inflation slowed to 15.7% year-on-year from 23.5%, and energy prices fell 5.7% month-on-month, with gasoline down 9.7%, more than offsetting increases in shelter and food prices.<\/p>\n
Answer: The next release is on August 12, 2026, at 12:30 PM GMT for July 2026 data, with a forecast annual inflation rate of 3.4%.<\/p>\n